Global MAP Market Report Q2 2026: Price Trends, Supply, Demand & Fertilizer Industry Analysis

Quarter Ending June 2026

Global MAP (Mono-Ammonium Phosphate) Market Overview

Global MAP markets firmed modestly in Q2 2026, with prices tracking USD 620–700/MT across major benchmarks. Brazil drove incremental demand: Indian buyers ran large-scale tenders ahead of Kharif sowing, while Brazilian importers began positioning early for the September–November soybean season. European prices held firm on steady NPK blending offtake and modest CBAM-linked cost pass-through. North American MAP eased as spring application concluded, though demand stayed firmer than DAP given MAP's seed-safe profile. Feedstock costs (phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, ammonia) stayed moderately firm, with Gulf-linked sulfur carrying Strait of Hormuz-related freight risk. Entering Q3 2026, the outlook is firm to bullish, led by tender-driven demand from both India and Brazil.

Global Price Comparison

Region Benchmark QoQ Change Avg. Price (USD/MT) Supply Demand Outlook

Europe

FOB Baltic / CIF NWE

+1% to +3%

660–700

Balanced

Steady

Stable to Bullish

North America

FOB NOLA

-1% to -3%

620–660

Balanced

Moderate

Stable

Latin America (Brazil)

CFR Brazil

+3% to +5%

650–690

Tightening

Firm (pre-season)

Bullish

Regional Highlights

Europe:

Prices held firm on steady NPK blending demand and CBAM-linked compliance costs, moderated versus DAP given MAP's lower nitrogen content. Moroccan and Gulf-origin supply remained the primary import sources. Market balance: balanced; outlook stable to bullish.

North America:

Prices eased as the spring application season concluded, though demand held firmer than DAP given MAP's seed-safe starter-fertilizer profile. Producers ran at high rates, keeping supply ample into the quieter summer. Market balance: balanced; outlook stable.

Latin America (Brazil):

Brazil, one of the world's largest MAP importers alongside India, drove a further share of the quarter's incremental demand as importers began early positioning ahead of the September–November soybean season. Early tender activity tightened available cargo positions from Morocco, Russia, and the US Gulf. Market balance: tightening; outlook bullish.

Key Drivers & Risks

Supply & Cost Drivers

  • Moroccan (OCP) and Gulf-origin (Ma'aden) producers remain the dominant global MAP supply sources; Chinese export policy remains a swing factor.
  • Phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, and ammonia feedstock costs stayed moderately firm; Gulf-sourced sulfur carries Hormuz-linked freight risk.

Demand & Trade Drivers

  • Tender-driven import demand from India and Brazil, the world's two largest MAP importers, was the primary driver of incremental global demand.
  • CBAM certificate costs added a modest compliance premium on higher-carbon cargoes entering the EU.

Key Risks

  • A weaker-than-expected Brazilian planting outlook or further Strait of Hormuz escalation are the primary downside/upside risks.
  • Chinese export policy shifts and a faster-than-expected North American demand slowdown remain key swing factors.

Procurement Recommendations

Latin America (Brazil) – Recommendation: BUY EARLY

  • Brazilian soybean planting demand is expected to keep import activity strong through Q3.
  • Lock in volumes early to mitigate potential freight increases and tighter cargo availability.

Europe – Recommendation: HOLD / SELECTIVE BUY

  • Purchase based on immediate consumption needs while comparing offers from multiple origins.
  • Continue evaluating total landed costs, including evolving carbon-related compliance costs where applicable.

North America – Recommendation: BUY ON DIPS

  • Seasonal demand has weakened following spring application.
  • Take advantage of softer spot prices and negotiate summer-fill contracts where available.

Recommended Q3 2026 Price Outlook

Region Q2 2026 Avg. (USD/MT) Q3 2026 Range (USD/MT) QoQ Outlook Recommendation

Europe – CIF NWE / FOB Baltic

660–700

665–705

Stable to +2%

HOLD / SELECTIVE BUY

North America – FOB NOLA

620–660

615–650

-1% to 0%

BUY ON DIPS

Latin America – CFR Brazil

650–690

660–700

+2% to +4%

BUY EARLY

FOB Morocco (Export Reference)

630–670

635–675

Stable to +2%

STABLE

Overall Market Outlook & Key Procurement Takeaway

Scenario Probability Expected Price Movement

Base Case

60%

Stable to +3%

Bullish Case

25%

+4% to +7% (strong Brazilian demand, tighter exports, geopolitical risks)

Bearish Case

15%

-3% to -5% (weaker Brazilian imports, relaxed Chinese exports, softer feedstock costs)

Market Recommendation: Moderately Bullish

  • Brazil remains the primary demand drivers, supporting global MAP prices through Q3 2026.
  • North America offers the best short-term buying opportunities due to seasonal demand weakness.
  • Secure early coverage for Latin America and APAC, while maintaining sourcing flexibility across Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other suppliers to manage geopolitical and logistics risks.

Key Watch Items

  • Pace of Brazilian pre-season MAP import tenders and Chinese export policy decisions.
  • Strait of Hormuz tension levels, Gulf-origin freight costs, and CBAM certificate price trends.
  • Indian Kharif-season demand realization and Brazilian planting weather/acreage expectations.